Republicans are projected to hold on to control of the Senate, according to the Associated Press. The GOP defied the odds in a year in which they were almost entirely on defense and riding a wave in which Donald Trump was closing in on 270 electoral votes.
Even with their best opportunities to gain seats in years, Democrats so far have only been able to pick up deep blue Illinois. And they narrowly hung on in Nevada, which was Republicans’ only offensive opportunity.
Going into Election Day, Democrats thought they had expanded an already favorable map for them, putting Republicans on notice in Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. But in the end, it wasn’t enough. Senate races in Missouri and New Hampshire still aren’t called, but it isn’t enough for Democrats to get the seats that they need. Republicans will hold the Senate if they win Alaska tonight, as expected, and a Louisiana runoff in December.
The state that best tells the story of the night is Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won re-election in a state most in the GOP wrote off months ago. He defeated Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold again in a rematch of their 2010 contest. Feingold had been trying to become the first former senator to win a Senate rematch since 1934. Johnson ran a strong race and was able to take advantage of tightening polls in the presidential contest as well in a state that Trump might very well carry. Both parties went back into the race with millions of dollars in ads in the closing days, but even Republicans thought it was a lost cause and Democrats just viewed it as an insurance policy of sorts. But as we’re seeing across the country now, those polls were very, very wrong.
In Indiana, former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh lost his comeback bid by a stunning 10 points to give GOP Rep. Todd Young the win, keeping the seat of retiring Sen. Dan Coats in Republican hands.
When Bayh entered the race this summer — after Democrats persuaded their initial nominee, former Rep. Baron Hill, to drop out — he quickly became the heavy favorite, with his universal name ID, family goodwill in the state and a $10 million war chest. Democrats were ecstatic they were able to give Republicans a headache they didn’t need in a year where they were already almost entirely playing defense.
But Bayh didn’t live up to the hype. Republicans were able to attack him over his ties to lobbyists and raise questions about his residency and purchase of a multimillion-dollar home in Georgetown — enough to hand Bayh, a former senator and governor and son of former Sen. Birch Bayh — his first loss ever in the state. He stumbled over his Indiana address during an interview, and it was later reported that he’d charged taxpayers for hotel stays in the state before he retired in 2010. Trump did well in the state, and that certainly helped Young, but it was a stunning collapse for Bayh in what looked like an almost sure thing when he got into the race.
Sen. Richard Burr also kept North Carolina in GOP hands, winning re-election over Democratic former state Rep. Deborah Ross. Burr ran a lackluster race, frustrating many national Republicans, but Ross was damaged by Republican hits over her tenure as the head of the state ACLU. But overall, the uptick for Trump across the country and his win in North Carolina helped Burr, who narrowly ran ahead of the GOP presidential nominee.
Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey also hung on to win re-election, beating Democrat Katie McGinty in a race called just before 1:30 a.m. ET by the AP that clinched Republicans’ hold on the Senate.
The two lone bright spots for Democrats were in Illinois and Nevada, but those wins netted them only one seat.
Rep. Tammy Duckworth picked up Illinois for Democrats, defeating GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. He already had the dubious distinction of being the Republican who represented the bluest state in the country, and he won in 2010, which was a good year for the GOP. Duckworth is an Iraq War veteran and former U.S. Army pilot who lost both of her legs and partial use of her right arm when her helicopter crashed.
Duckworth ran a good race, but Kirk had a lot of missteps and gaffes — most notably during a debate when he made a flippant remark about Duckworth’s military service and heritage. Her mother is from Thailand and her father is American, and when she talked about her family fighting in the American Revolution, Kirk’s retort was, “I’d forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington.”
Democrats also kept the seat of retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. Buoyed by Hispanic turnout, former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated GOP Rep. Joe Heck to win the open seat. She will become the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate.
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