YouGov model shows Treadwell within reach of Begich

Most polls in the U.S. Senate race show Dan Sullivan ahead of rival Republican Mead Treadwell in the primary. But the Treadwell campaign is trumpeting a new analysis by the polling firm YouGov.

It shows Treadwell would do better against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in November than Sullivan would. In a two-way contest, YouGov estimates Begich would lead Treadwell by 2 points, 47% to 45%.

It says the gap between Begich and Sullivan is 12 points, 49% to 37%.

The YouGov Battleground Tracker is sponsored by CBS and the New York Times. Nationwide, it shows Republicans have a slight advantage to take the majority of Senate seats.

The model is based largely on polls and an online panel of voters. It also takes into account fundraising totals, voter demographics and historical data.

The researchers caution that Alaska is tricky to poll and there have been few recent surveys. The Alaska data is from 452 Internet respondents.

Sullivan campaign spokesman Mike Anderson says YouGov’s work is not based on the more reliable technique of random polling but allows respondents to “opt-in,” or self-select. Anderson notes The Wall Street Journal reports Begich and Sullivan are evenly matched.

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